When Captain America won?

Terry is going to win "Survivor: Exile Island." Absolutely. Positively. Maybe.

The man is so arrogant that, even though he can back up everything he says, you still kind of want to punch him in the mouth. (Though, of course, he'd no doubt snap your arm in two if you tried.) His people skills suck, his strategic skills may be even worse. And he's going to win. I think.

After wowing me with her strategery last week, I think Cirie made one move too many. Her paranoia about not being able to beat Danielle in the final two ensured that the only person Cirie herself can beat in a jury vote is maybe Aras, and she's now set things up so that it'll be almost impossible for the two of them to get there.

Ya need four votes to win. Right now, the five people on the jury consist of two people from Terry's original tribe (one of whom hero-worshipped the guy); Bruce, who has said in interviews after the game that he and Terry had a secret alliance that would have become overt if the numbers had ever made sense; and Courtney and Shane, both of whom had an agreement to go to the final two with Terry at the moment they got voted out. That's five votes right there, and as Jeff said, we don't need to count any more.

Now, you can never exactly predict how jurors will vote after they've had a few days away from the game -- Christy freaking voted for Jenna, for God's sake -- but with five people who'd be leaning in Terry's direction, whoever's sitting next to him may need to give the greatest jury speech of all time just to lose in a 3-4 vote.

And Terry is going to be in front of the jury. Of that I have no doubt. He has the Idol, so he's a lock for the final three. If he wins the next Immunity Challenge -- and at this point, how can he not? -- he can hand the Idol to Danielle and spell Aras' doom. And ain't no way Cirie is beating either Terry or Danielle in the final challenge; whether it's endurance, balance or both, it's not going to play to her strengths. (Unless Burnett and Tom Shelly are feeling wacky and decide to save the Know Your Tribemates trivia quiz for the final challenge the way they did in Australia.)

If Cirie hadn't been so afraid of Danielle -- and, frankly, I think she overestimated Danielle's appeal to the jury (especially to Courtney) -- they could have sent Danielle home, no harm, no foul, and there'd be at least one more jury vote up for grabs. She and Aras would still face the problem of the hidden Idol (which is everybody's own damn fault for sending Terry to Exile Island so many times), which could be passed off to Shane, but on the other hand, Shane could be swayed back to the fold, and not only talked into getting rid of Aras, but maybe even bringing Cirie to final two in the event of a fluke win over Terry in the final challenge. (Shane would be just arrogant enough to think there was no way he could lose to someone like Cirie, while he would fear Terry if it came to that.)

Whether Terry wins or not, I have to say I'm laughing harder and harder at each Tribal Council
as Terry realizes that his latest plan has been foiled. But in this season, planning skills seem to be falling second to brute strength, endurance and tenacity.

And if Terry wins, something tells me we're not going to see a physically dominant guy even make the merge for a very long time. Tom could be written off as a fluke, plus he had a huge alliance around him, but the fear of The Challenge Machine Who Wouldn't Go Away will live long in the nightmares of future contestants.

What does everybody else think?